By G. Tracy Mehan, III

Incredibly, but understandably, opinions seem to be firming up on the outcome of an election almost a full year away. That at least was the sense I had listening to a panel discussion involving former Democratic House Leader Richard Gephardt, former Republican House Majority Leader Dick Armey, and Charlie Cook, pundit extraordinaire and editor of a well-respected newsletter on politics, The Cook Political Report.

The event on November 5, “Countdown to the White House,” at the Willard hotel, was hosted by DLA Piper a Washington law firm. Gephardt, Armey, and Blanchard are all members of the government affairs practice at the law firm. So this was definitely an inside-the-Beltway affair

COOK, GEPHARDT, AND ARMEY agree that the GOP primary is really down to Romney and Giuliani. Romney could gain strong momentum if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, a circumstance that would allow him to capitalize on his strong organizational and financial resources for the long haul. If he stumbles, Giuliani is the man to watch.

Cook even thinks Giuliani could survive losses in both states. (He once said that he, Cook, had a better chance of winning the Tour de France than Rudy did of winning the GOP nomination. He defends himself by noting that he never said when he might win the Tour.)

Dick Armey believes economic conservatives break for Romney, the security voters for Giuliani. The social conservatives, which he pretty much views as being Evangelicals, exclusively, are confused.

Interestingly, Cook, Armey, and Gephardt, when discussing religion and social conservatism, or the political impact of Romney’s Mormonism, do not discuss Catholic voters. Read more…

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